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Q1 FY27 concall · earnings callAshok Leyland Limited

Ashok Leyland posted record Q1 volumes and revenue despite industry headwinds, but flat EBITDA margins reflect significant pressure from rising commodity costs which management expects to persist into Q2.

Cautious tone4-minute briefPublished 7 days after the call

Numbers
MetricThis quarterChangeFive-quarter trend
Revenue₹9,634 Cr10%
EBITDA₹970 Cr0%
EBITDA Margin10.1%-100 bps
PBT₹830 Cr4%
PAT₹609 Cr3%
Domestic MHCV Truck Volume22,998 units15%
Domestic LCV Volume18,874 units21%
Net Cash₹2,252 Cr—
Financials

From filed quarterly results. YoY and QoQ compare each metric on the same accounting basis.

QuarterRevenueNet profit (PAT)Basic EPS
Q3 FY25₹11,995.21 Cr+8.1% YoY+7.6% QoQ₹819.67 Cr+34.6% YoY+6.9% QoQ₹2.59+35.6% YoY+7.9% QoQ
Q2 FY25₹11,147.58 Cr-2.5% YoY+3.9% QoQ₹766.55 Cr+34.6% YoY+39.2% QoQ₹2.40+34.1% YoY+38.7% QoQ
Q1 FY25₹10,724.49 Cr+10.7% YoY-21% QoQ₹550.65 Cr-5.8% YoY-41% QoQ₹1.73-6.5% YoY-40.5% QoQ
Q4 FY24₹13,577.58 Cr+2.8% YoY+22.4% QoQ₹933.69 Cr+16.3% YoY+53.4% QoQ₹2.91+13.7% YoY+52.4% QoQ
Q3 FY24₹11,092.70 Cr+6.7% YoY-2.9% QoQ₹608.85 Cr+73.4% YoY+6.9% QoQ₹1.91+75.2% YoY+6.7% QoQ
TL;DR
  • Achieved all-time high Q1 CV volume, revenue, profit and cash surplus.
  • Domestic MHCV truck volume grew 15% Y-o-Y; LCV volume grew 21% Y-o-Y to a Q1 record.
  • EBITDA was flat Y-o-Y at INR970 crores with margin at 10.1%, down 100 bps, due to commodity price pressures.
  • Management used inventory and price hikes to mitigate gross margin contraction, but expects Q2 to be challenging with further cost headwinds.
  • Export volume declined 18% Y-o-Y due to logistical issues in the UAE plant, but recovery is underway.
  • Non-CV businesses (aftermarket, Power Solutions, defense) grew strongly.
Said on the call

“We have a dichotomy of a situation right now. While on the top line side, on the industry side, we know that the industry's momentum is very, very strong... On the other side, we have a situation on raw material commodity prices, which I do believe is temporary.”

Shenu Agarwal, MD & CEO
From the Q&A
TopicWhat management said
Margins and Commodity CostsManagement explained flat EBITDA margin was achieved by using lower-cost opening inventory (covering 1/5 to 1/4 of Q1 needs) and taking 1.2%-1.25% price hikes, with 50% of cost increase offset by price and 50% by cost savings/inventory. Q2 will see higher commodity impact, but they are accelerating cost savings and considering more price hikes.
Export OutlookQ1 export volume fell 18% Y-o-Y due to plant shutdown in UAE (GCC). The facility is now ramping up, and recovery is expected, with strong growth in SAARC and Africa (40%-60% Y-o-Y) partially offsetting the GCC decline.
Industry Volume Growth OutlookManagement expects strong industry growth to continue until October, then moderate due to a high base from last year. For FY27, they estimate MHCV industry growth in high single digits, with LCV outlook slightly better.
LCV Market Share StrategyThe company is shifting focus from the 2-3.5 ton segment to the entire LCV VAHAN market, where it has gained share quarter-on-quarter. New products are in the pipeline to address the full market.
Business DiversificationA key strategy is reducing dependence on cyclical domestic MHCV trucks. The breakeven point for covering fixed costs with domestic MHCV truck sales is now 1,000-1,500 units per month, down from 6,000-7,000 a few years ago, due to growth in non-MHCV businesses like defense and Power Solutions.
Regulatory Outlook (BS7)Management's personal opinion is that BS7 emission norms for CVs should not be expected in India before 2031, and it could be 2032.
Guidance
  • Commodity cost pressures are expected to be higher in Q2 than Q1, with respite likely only from Q3 and a turnaround in Q4.
  • Price increases of over 1% for MHCV and over 2% for LCV were taken in July, with more under consideration before Q2 ends.
  • MHCV industry growth is expected to be high single-digit for FY27, with LCV outlook slightly better.
  • Capex, focused on new products and future tech, will continue to increase over the next 2-3 years from the recent ~INR900-1,000 crore annual run rate.
Source
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